Project Brazil | Visual Tasks 2, 3, 4 | Standalone Draft

Three Structural Plates
for the Cage of Autonomy

This file implements the next three visual concepts: the decision terrain of accommodation, the fiscal cutaway of budget capture, and the institutional immunity table. Each figure is designed to make the argument inspectable rather than merely dramatic.

Task 2: decision terrain Task 3: fiscal cutaway Task 4: immunity elements Standalone HTML/SVG
Task 2 | Decision Terrain

Accommodation becomes rational when vulnerability and confrontation cost rise together.

The figure tests the project's central behavioral claim: reformist governments often do not abandon change because they are insincere. They adapt because the architecture makes confrontation costlier than bargaining. The paths below are stylized trajectories, not a statistical model.

The accommodation basin When executive vulnerability and confrontation cost both rise, bargaining becomes the low-cost path. executive vulnerability cost of confrontation low high low high Reform window Low vulnerability, low confrontation cost. Crisis cliff Confrontation threatens survival. Accommodation basin The low-cost path is coalition buying, rate discipline, budget bargaining, and institutional deference. 2002 victory 2003 Selic 26.5% Mensalao shock Lula bargain 2011 mandate 2013 streets Lava Jato impeachment 2018 victory military in govt 2022-23 rupture paths Lula / PT Dilma Bolsonaro Accommodation basin Integrity note: coordinates are analytical placements, not measured values. Use as a claim map: where would a government need to be for confrontation to become rational?
Task 3 | Fiscal Cutaway

Before democracy allocates, the budget is already occupied.

This figure gives the atlas a quantitative floor. It uses GDP as the common denominator so debt interest, pensions, wages, and investment can be compared without switching units. The exact values should be refreshed from the fiscal note before publication.

Federal fiscal anatomy, % of GDP A 47% GDP public sector can still produce a 1.5% GDP public-investment state when pre-commitments dominate. public spending envelope debt 6% pensions 12% civil wages 12.5% other spending 15% inv. 1.5% 0 10 20 30 40 47 political interpretation 30.5% of GDP pre-committed to organized claimants before new democratic allocation. Investment is the residual Roads, logistics, sanitation, state capacity, and industrial policy fight for what remains. financial locks beside the budget Collateral failure Recovery: 13 cents per R$1 Credit remains expensive even when law improves. Thin mortgage state Mortgage stock: about 10% GDP Household credit cannot play the same stabilizing role. Offshore exit channel BRL/USD -56% since 2014 Capital controls and currency risk create captive demand. Integrity checks: keep all fiscal bars in % of GDP; mark ranges such as debt interest 6-8% explicitly; do not mix nominal R$ totals into this figure without a second scale.
Task 4 | Institutional Immunity Table

A compact table for comparing different species of power without pretending they are the same.

Each element scores six immunity traits from 0 to 4: legal embedding, fiscal claim, accountability gap, reach, reform veto, and beneficiary clarity. The scores are editorial coding for visual comparison; they should be treated as hypotheses to audit, not final measurement.

01Mi
Military Immunity
sovereign cage
legal
fiscal
accountability
reach
Permanent immunity from transition settlement.
02Ag
Agribusiness
territorial cage
legal
fiscal
veto
reach
Land, credit, caucus, frontier.
03Ct
Centrao
legislative cage
legal
fiscal
veto
clarity
The rules expressing themselves as players.
04Me
Media Ownership
informational cage
legal
fiscal
reach
veto
Old ownership cage, new platform fog.
05Ev
Evangelical Power
cultural cage
legal
fiscal
reach
clarity
Democratic legitimacy plus machine depth.
06BC
Central Bank
calibrated gyroscope
legal
fiscal
accountability
clarity
No jailer needed; market discipline calibrates.
07ST
Supreme Court
free gyroscope
legal
fiscal
accountability
veto
Where political conflict goes to be decided.
08Ps
Pre-sal Rent
contested gyroscope
legal
fiscal
veto
clarity
No stable owner, therefore high instability.
F1Fi
Fiscal Structure
budget anatomy
legal
fiscal
veto
clarity
Where all cages become arithmetic.
F2Cr
Secured Credit
collateral anatomy
legal
fiscal
reach
veto
A market structure that keeps rates socially violent.
S1Rs
Race / Security
structural shadow
legal
fiscal
accountability
reach
The shadow below formal institutions.
S2Fe
Federalism
structural shadow
legal
fiscal
reach
clarity
Power distributed, capacity withheld.

Macro read

The darkest rows are not necessarily the most evil; they are the hardest to reform because they combine formal embedding, fiscal claim, veto capacity, and accountability gaps.

Micro read

Each square is one unit on a 0-4 editorial scale. This table should be debated and audited against source data before being treated as a measurement product.

Design claim

Use this as the report's index of power species: cages, gyroscopes, financial locks, and structural shadows can be compared without collapsing into one fake score.