Project Brazil | Reform Kill-Path | Standalone Draft
The Reform Kill-Path
of Brazilian Constraint
A standalone matrix showing where major reforms die: at coalition, committee, budget, court, media, and pulpit gates.
Task 8 | Reform Kill-Path
Reform does not fail abstractly. It dies at gates.
This matrix treats each reform as a path through institutional gates. The figure should let the reader inspect where the reform stalls, who supplies the veto, and whether the obstacle is electoral, fiscal, judicial, informational, or coalition-based.
| Reform | Executive | Coalition | Committee | Budget | Courts | Media / Pulpit | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land reform | 1campaign promise | XFPA veto | Xruralist gate | XINCRA thin | !Marco Temporal | !order framing | Xcontained |
| Media regulation | !agenda fear | Xowner-legislators | Xlicense interests | -low spend | !speech claims | Xagenda backlash | Xpolitically toxic |
| Military accountability | !civilian caution | Xtransition pact | !defense lobby | Xpensions | Xamnesty law | !order myth | Ximmunity survives |
| Electoral reform | 1episodic support | Xincumbent logic | Xparty machines | -not fiscal | !rules litigation | -low salience | Xself-reform fails |
| Fiscal reallocation | 1policy desire | !pork demand | !sector claims | X30.5% locked | !rights claims | !market pressure | Xinvestment residual |
| Collateral enforcement | 1technocratic support | !credit politics | !legal detail | -indirect | Xexecution gap | -low salience | !partial repair |
1 | Pass
Gate can be crossed under ordinary political conditions.
! | Friction
Gate produces delay, dilution, or high political cost.
- | Not decisive
Gate matters less than another bottleneck on the path.
X | Kill gate
Gate normally kills or transforms the reform beyond recognition.