Project Brazil / Civic Proof Plates / visual system draft

巴西民主的
结构性证据板

这不是一组装饰性图表，而是一套证据板：每张板只承担一个论证任务，把“笼子、陀螺仪、阴影、财政地板、改革闸门、结构天气”固定成同一套视觉语法。

6 plates Du Bois data portrait logic Visual Complexity system map 中文渲染检查
elected mandate 民主政府 真实权力，有限自主 BCB STF PRE-SAL Military Agro Centrao Media Evangelical 财政与金融地板：债务、养老金、工资、信贷执行、离岸避险 The floor turns social and institutional power into budgetary facts.

The Cage of Autonomy / 自主性的牢笼

A proof-object version of the project thesis. This is the visual grammar every later plate should inherit.

argument map
federalism: distributed power, withheld capacity race and security: shadow beneath formal institutions elected mandate 民主政府 real power, bounded autonomy Military immunitytransition pact never renegotiated Agribusiness land powerfrontier still expanding Centrao OSbudget as coalition machine Media ownershipsignal control and platform fog Evangelical infrastructurechurch, media, caucus BCB STF PRE-SAL fiscal / financial floor: pre-commitments make autonomy materially scarce

The casting of the cage / 牢笼如何被铸造

A sequence plate: regime, constitution, markets, churches, platforms, oil rents.

historical plate
Origin sequence: from constructed power to inherited constraint 19641985198819992010s2020s Military immunity amnesty, Art.142, pension privilege Land power modernized latifundio becomes agribusiness veto Congressional fragmentation rules become coalition budget machine Broadcast ownership licenses and families become signal power Evangelical infrastructure belonging becomes pulpit, media, caucus BCB calibration inflation targeting and market discipline 1964coup 1979amnesty 1988Art.142 colonialland grants Plano Safracredit state FPAcaucus power 1988rules locked 2010semendas 1960slicenses 1988protected ownership 2010splatform rupture 1980surban church 2010sbancada 1999targeting 2021autonomy law unrenegotiated immunitymilitary ceiling remains territorial vetofrontier as policy tool budget machinecoalition is infrastructure platform fogold cage plus new opacity pulpit caucusfaith as policy gate market disciplinedelegated monetary ceiling Evidence rule: each rivet should link to a source note before publication. This draft shows narrative order and visual grammar; measured dates, actors, and legal references can be audited plate by plate.

social cages

5

有明确社会主人、组织化利益和主动防御者。

gyroscopes

3

国家授权、建造或发现的稳定器，靠近国家核心。

structural shadows

2

不是节点，而是所有节点背后的地层。

黑色地板 = 财政与金融预承诺。

虚线环 = 陀螺仪，不是社会集团。

半透明色带 = 种族/安全与联邦主义。

彩色笼子 = 有组织社会权力。

Federal fiscal anatomy / 联邦财政剖面

A cutaway showing why a large public sector can still leave a small investment state.

data plate
Public spending envelope as occupied floor debt6% pensions12% civil wages12.5% other11% inv.1.5% 010203040% GDP official / measuredpublished fiscal series derivednormalized from budget components interpretiveused only after source trail is visible
ReformExecutiveCoalitionCommitteeBudgetCourtsMedia / PulpitOutcome
Land reform / 土地改革1X FPA vetoXX INCRA thin!!X contained
Media regulation / 媒体监管!X owner-legislatorsX-!X backlashX toxic
Military accountability / 军方问责!X transition pact!X pensionsX amnesty!X immunity survives
Fiscal reallocation / 财政再分配1! pork demand!X floor locked!! marketsX residual investment

Structural weather / 结构天气

Prototype cards for the daily brief pipeline.

daily system
Military72amnesty, pension, Jan. 8 Agro81Marco Temporal, INPE, FPA Centrao76emendas, committees, threats Info63broadcast + platform fog Signal-to-constraint classifier A Petrobras story may be Pre-sal, fiscal policy, union politics, or congressional bargaining depending on the mechanism activated. source excerpt mechanism tag pressure score source trail